New Meat-Heavy US Dietary Guidelines Would Raise Emissions, Land and Fertilizer Use by Up to 32%

Following America's new meat-heavy dietary guidelines would raise the greenhouse gas emissions, land use and nitrogen fertilizer use of the US diet by as much as 32%, according to a modeling study published in PNAS on June 1.

The 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, released early this year, tell people to avoid ultra-processed foods but also to eat more protein, chiefly from animal sources. Researchers led by Alon Shepon at Tel Aviv University built equal-calorie diets that follow the advice and compared them with the current average American diet.

Cutting out ultra-processed foods on its own would help the planet, but the extra animal protein more than cancels that out, raising greenhouse gas emissions, land use and nitrogen fertilizer use by up to 32%. Only water use came out lower, by 7% to 19%. The results matter well beyond the dinner table, because the guidelines shape school meals, SNAP food assistance and military and hospital food, the paper notes.

The authors conclude: "Across all environmental metrics measured, favoring plants- over animal-based foods leads to better environmental outcomes."

Whole plant foods, then, are the real "real food" for people and planet.

Earlier research has found that a vegan diet cuts climate impact by 75% and the EAT-Lancet 2.0 scientists say a plant-rich diet could prevent 15 million deaths a year.

The science points one way: more plants.